Large language models (LLMs) are known to exhibit biases in downstream tasks, especially when dealing with sensitive topics such as political discourse, gender identity, ethnic relations, or national stereotypes. Although significant progress has been made in bias detection and mitigation techniques, certain challenges remain underexplored. This study proposes a reusable, granular, and topic-agnostic framework to evaluate polarisation-related biases in LLM (both open-source and closed-source). Our approach combines polarisation-sensitive sentiment metrics with a synthetically generated balanced dataset of conflict-related statements, using a predefined set of semantic categories. As a case study, we created a synthetic dataset that focusses on the Russia-Ukraine war, and we evaluated the bias in several LLMs: Llama-3, Mistral, GPT-4, Claude 3.5, and Gemini 1.0. Beyond aggregate bias scores, with a general trend for more positive sentiment toward Ukraine, the framework allowed fine-grained analysis with considerable variation between semantic categories, uncovering divergent behavioural patterns among models. Adaptation to prompt modifications showed further bias towards preconceived language and citizenship modification. Overall, the framework supports automated dataset generation and fine-grained bias assessment, is applicable to a variety of polarisation-driven scenarios and topics, and is orthogonal to many other bias-evaluation strategies.

Dynamic Link Prediction (DLP) addresses the prediction of future links in evolving networks. However, accurately portraying the performance of DLP algorithms poses challenges that might impede progress in the field. Importantly, common evaluation pipelines usually calculate ranking or binary classification metrics, where the scores of observed interactions (positives) are compared with those of randomly generated ones (negatives). However, a single metric is not sufficient to fully capture the differences between DLP algorithms, and is prone to overly optimistic performance evaluation. Instead, an in-depth evaluation should reflect performance variations across different nodes, edges, and time segments. In this work, we contribute tools to perform such a comprehensive evaluation. (1) We propose Birth-Death diagrams, a simple but powerful visualization technique that illustrates the effect of time-based train-test splitting on the difficulty of DLP on a given dataset. (2) We describe an exhaustive taxonomy of negative sampling methods that can be used at evaluation time. (3) We carry out an empirical study of the effect of the different negative sampling strategies. Our comparison between heuristics and state-of-the-art memory-based methods on various real-world datasets confirms a strong effect of using different negative sampling strategies on the test Area Under the Curve (AUC). Moreover, we conduct a visual exploration of the prediction, with additional insights on which different types of errors are prominent over time.

Large-scale generative models are shown to be useful for sampling meaningful candidate solutions, yet they often overlook task constraints and user preferences. Their full power is better harnessed when the models are coupled with external verifiers and the final solutions are derived iteratively or progressively according to the verification feedback. In the context of embodied AI, verification often solely involves assessing whether goal conditions specified in the instructions have been met. Nonetheless, for these agents to be seamlessly integrated into daily life, it is crucial to account for a broader range of constraints and preferences beyond bare task success (e.g., a robot should grasp bread with care to avoid significant deformations). However, given the unbounded scope of robot tasks, it is infeasible to construct scripted verifiers akin to those used for explicit-knowledge tasks like the game of Go and theorem proving. This begs the question: when no sound verifier is available, can we use large vision and language models (VLMs), which are approximately omniscient, as scalable Behavior Critics to catch undesirable robot behaviors in videos? To answer this, we first construct a benchmark that contains diverse cases of goal-reaching yet undesirable robot policies. Then, we comprehensively evaluate VLM critics to gain a deeper understanding of their strengths and failure modes. Based on the evaluation, we provide guidelines on how to effectively utilize VLM critiques and showcase a practical way to integrate the feedback into an iterative process of policy refinement. The dataset and codebase are released at: https://guansuns.github.io/pages/vlm-critic.

Verizon Media (VZM) native advertising is one of VZM largest and fastest growing businesses, reaching a run-rate of several hundred million USDs in the past year. Driving the VZM native models that are used to predict event probabilities, such as click and conversion probabilities, is OFFSET - a feature enhanced collaborative-filtering based event-prediction algorithm. In this work we focus on the challenge of predicting click-through rates (CTR) when we are aware that some of the clicks have short dwell-time and are defined as accidental clicks. An accidental click implies little affinity between the user and the ad, so predicting that similar users will click on the ad is inaccurate. Therefore, it may be beneficial to remove clicks with dwell-time lower than a predefined threshold from the training set. However, we cannot ignore these positive events, as filtering these will cause the model to under predict. Previous approaches have tried to apply filtering and then adding corrective biases to the CTR predictions, but did not yield revenue lifts and therefore were not adopted. In this work, we present a new approach where the positive weight of the accidental clicks is distributed among all of the negative events (skips), based on their likelihood of causing accidental clicks, as predicted by an auxiliary model. These likelihoods are taken as the correct labels of the negative events, shifting our training from using only binary labels and adopting a binary cross-entropy loss function in our training process. After showing offline performance improvements, the modified model was tested online serving VZM native users, and provided 1.18% revenue lift over the production model which is agnostic to accidental clicks.

There is a fast-growing body of research on predicting future links in dynamic networks, with many new algorithms. Some benchmark data exists, and performance evaluations commonly rely on comparing the scores of observed network events (positives) with those of randomly generated ones (negatives). These evaluation measures depend on both the predictive ability of the model and, crucially, the type of negative samples used. Besides, as generally the case with temporal data, prediction quality may vary over time. This creates a complex evaluation space. In this work, we catalog the possibilities for negative sampling and introduce novel visualization methods that can yield insight into prediction performance and the dynamics of temporal networks. We leverage these visualization tools to investigate the effect of negative sampling on the predictive performance, at the node and edge level. We validate empirically, on datasets extracted from recent benchmarks that the error is typically not evenly distributed across different data segments. Finally, we argue that such visualization tools can serve as powerful guides to evaluate dynamic link prediction methods at different levels.

Taiwan has the highest susceptibility to and fatalities from debris flows worldwide. The existing debris flow warning system in Taiwan, which uses a time-weighted measure of rainfall, leads to alerts when the measure exceeds a predefined threshold. However, this system generates many false alarms and misses a substantial fraction of the actual debris flows. Towards improving this system, we implemented five machine learning models that input historical rainfall data and predict whether a debris flow will occur within a selected time. We found that a random forest model performed the best among the five models and outperformed the existing system in Taiwan. Furthermore, we identified the rainfall trajectories strongly related to debris flow occurrences and explored trade-offs between the risks of missing debris flows versus frequent false alerts. These results suggest the potential for machine learning models trained on hourly rainfall data alone to save lives while reducing false alerts.

Few-shot bioacoustic event detection is a task that detects the occurrence time of a novel sound given a few examples. Previous methods employ metric learning to build a latent space with the labeled part of different sound classes, also known as positive events. In this study, we propose a segment-level few-shot learning framework that utilizes both the positive and negative events during model optimization. Training with negative events, which are larger in volume than positive events, can increase the generalization ability of the model. In addition, we use transductive inference on the validation set during training for better adaptation to novel classes.

Few-shot bioacoustic event detection is a task that detects the occurrence time of a novel sound given a few examples. Previous methods employ metric learning to build a latent space with the labeled part of different sound classes, also known as positive events. In this study, we propose a segment-level few-shot learning framework that utilizes both the positive and negative events during model optimization. Training with negative events, which are larger in volume than positive events, can increase the generalization ability of the model. In addition, we use transductive inference on the validation set during training for better adaptation to novel classes. We conduct ablation studies on our proposed method with different setups on input features, training data, and hyper-parameters. Our final system achieves an F-measure of 62.73 on the DCASE 2022 challenge task 5 (DCASE2022-T5) validation set, outperforming the performance of the baseline prototypical network 34.02 by a large margin. Using the proposed method, our submitted system ranks 2nd in DCASE2022-T5. The code of this paper is fully open-sourced at https://github.com/haoheliu/DCASE_2022_Task_5.

The aim of this study was to approach a difficult regression task on highly unbalanced data regarding active theater of war in Afghanistan. Our focus was set on predicting the negative events number without distinguishing precise nature of the events given historical data on investment and negative events per each of predefined 400 Afghanistan districts. In contrast with previous research on the matter, we propose an approach to analysis of time series data that benefits from non-conventional aggregation of these territorial entities. By carrying out initial exploratory data analysis we demonstrate that dividing data according to our proposal allows to identify strong trend and seasonal components in the selected target variable. Utilizing this approach we also tried to estimate which data regarding investments is most important for prediction performance. Based on our exploratory analysis and previous research we prepared 5 sets of independent variables that were fed to 3 machine learning regression models. The results expressed by mean absolute and mean square errors indicate that leveraging historical data regarding target variable allows for reasonable performance, however unfortunately other proposed independent variables does not seem to improve prediction quality.

Process mining sheds new light on the relationship between process models and real-life processes. Process discovery can be used to learn process models from event logs. Conformance checking is concerned with quantifying the quality of a business process model in relation to event data that was logged during the execution of the business process. There exist different categories of conformance measures. Recall, also called fitness, is concerned with quantifying how much of the behavior that was observed in the event log fits the process model. Precision is concerned with quantifying how much behavior a process model allows for that was never observed in the event log. Generalization is concerned with quantifying how well a process model generalizes to behavior that is possible in the business process but was never observed in the event log. Many recall, precision, and generalization measures have been developed throughout the years, but they are often defined in an ad-hoc manner without formally defining the desired properties up front. To address these problems, we formulate 21 conformance propositions and we use these propositions to evaluate current and existing conformance measures. The goal is to trigger a discussion by clearly formulating the challenges and requirements (rather than proposing new measures). Additionally, this paper serves as an overview of the conformance checking measures that are available in the process mining area.